Knowledge Management Risk Assessment

Tunisia: The preliminary results of the agricultural risk assessment study for cereals and olive value chains presented to the government and stakeholders


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From 29 February to 1 March 2024, the Platform for Agricultural Risk Management (PARM) presented and discussed the preliminary results of the Agricultural Value Chain Risk Assessment Study (AVC-RAS), during a knowledge sharing workshop convened in Tunis that gathered government institutions and key actors in the development of the agricultural sector in Tunisia. Centered on the olive and cereals value chains, respectively as food and export commodities, the study aimed to identify and prioritize the main risks affecting the two value chains using quantitative and qualitative techniques.

Nearly 150 individuals (50% of which were women) representing a diverse range of stakeholders attended the workshop, including government institutions such as the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance, Environment, Economy, and Planning, and their affiliated institutions, as well as banks, insurance firms, farmers’ organizations, and technical and financial partners such as the World Bank, IFC, FAO, UNDP, European Commission and the Italian Cooperation.

The AVC-RAS for the olive and cereals value chains sought to facilitate an investment plan aligned with the Tunisian government’s efforts to strengthen the resilience of these two critical value chains. The preliminary findings indicate that the olive value chain is vulnerable to various risks, such as agricultural drought, theft and vandalism impacting stocks and equipment, decreased income from olive production, increased prices for olive production (with a 20% rise in olive tree prices), and reduced support for production. Specifically, the economic impact of agricultural drought on olive alone could lead to annual losses estimated at 1 billion Tunisian dinars (equivalent to 250 million US dollars) for a moderate impact and 2.7 billion Tunisian dinars (equal to 900 million US dollars) for a severe impact.

Similarly, for the cereals value chain, the initial results highlight several risks, including agricultural season drought, a shortened development cycle, early maturity date, disruption of harvesting campaign, and grain scalding. The shortened cereals development cycle and the advancement of the maturity date could potentially result in annual losses of around 823 million Tunisian dinars (approximately 223 million US dollars) and 679 million Tunisian dinars (equivalent to 226 million US dollars), respectively, under maximum impact scenarios.

During the workshop, the attending stakeholders’ experts have provided inputs and technical advice to consolidate the content of the study, and suggested adequate tools to address the prioritized risks. The workshop was also an opportunity to raise awareness and strengthen the understanding of the key partners on the main concepts of Agricultural Risk Management (ARM), in order to increase their capacity to better manage risk and support the PARM country process, including the appropriation of the AVC-RAS and its results.

The study has been carried out in the framework of the technical support that PARM is providing to the Tunisian government through the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Fisheries (MARHP), via the General Directorate of Investment Financing and Professional Organizations (DGFIOP), and to the Ministry of economic and planning. The final results of the study that incorporate the government and stakeholders’ contributions will be shared with MARHP for final approval by the interministerial technical committee by April 2024. This will open the discussions to identify the final tools to manage the priority risks from the validated AVC-RAS. The next phase is the design of an investment program/project which will focus on the selected ARM tools to mitigate the prioritized risks.